The Spending Breakdown/Overview doesn't show expected expenses/income (that is, recurring expenses/income) that haven't come in yet. It strictly only counts the transactions that have posted.

This has come up before and I have been toying with the idea of "prefilling" the Overview table with recurring items. Maybe they are italicized or the horizontal bar is striped and when the recurring item has cleared, it turns solid. This will give a clearer picture of what to expect, especially for the income bar.